View source for Tipping-point state

{{Short description|U.S. state that gives the winner of a presidential election a decisive number of electoral votes}}
[[File:Nate Silver 2009.png|thumb|200px|The concept of tipping-point states was popularized by [[Nate Silver]].]]
The concept of a "'''tipping-point state'''" is used in some analyses of [[United States presidential election]]s. In a list of states ordered by decreasing margin of victory for the winning candidate, the tipping point state is the first state where the combined electoral votes of all states up to that point in the list give the winning candidate a majority in the [[Electoral College (United States)|Electoral College]].

The idea of a "tipping-point state" can be interpreted as suggesting a [[Thought_experiment#Counterfactual|counterfactual]], on the assumption that outcomes in different states are strongly [[correlation|correlated]]: if the nation-wide vote margin were shifted, but the ''order'' of states by vote margin were unchanged, the tipping-point state would be the state or states in which a change in the state winner would result in a change in the national winner. The term may also refer to the state that would give the second-place candidate a majority of the electoral vote when all states are arranged in order of their vote margins; this is typically, but not always, the same state as in the primary definition (see section ''[[#Origin and definition|Origin and definition]]'' for exceptions).

Since the number of electors was set to 538 for the [[1964 United States presidential election]], 270 electoral votes have been required to win the Electoral College. In some elections, there can be multiple tipping-point states for different candidates: if no candidate receives 270 electoral votes, a [[contingent election]] is required in the [[United States House of Representatives]]. For example, in the [[2020 United States presidential election]], if [[Donald Trump]] had won [[2020 United States presidential election in Wisconsin|Wisconsin]], [[2020 United States presidential election in Arizona|Arizona]] and [[2020 United States presidential election in Georgia|Georgia]], the electoral college would have been tied 269-269: thus, Wisconsin was the tipping-point state for a [[Joe Biden|Biden]] victory, whereas [[2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]], the next-closest, was the tipping-point state for a Trump victory.

==Origin==

The concept of a tipping-point state was popularized by [[FiveThirtyEight]]'s [[Nate Silver]].<ref name="nytimes">{{cite news |last1=Katz |first1=Josh |title=Florida Is Most Likely to Be the Election 'Tipping Point' |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/03/upshot/florida-is-most-likely-to-be-the-election-tipping-point.html |access-date=26 February 2019 |work=The New York Times |date=2 August 2016}}</ref> FiveThirtyEight regularly predicts which state will be the tipping-point state in a given presidential election through the site's "Tipping Point Index". Past predictions of tipping-point states include either [[Michigan]] or [[Ohio]] in [[2008 United States presidential election|the 2008 election]],<ref>{{cite magazine |last1=Silver |first1=Nate |title=The Tipping-Point States |url=https://newrepublic.com/article/63505/the-tipping-point-states |access-date=26 February 2019 |magazine=The New Republic |date=22 July 2008}}</ref> Ohio in [[2012 United States presidential election|the 2012 election]],<ref>{{cite news |last1=LoGiurato |first1=Brett |title=Mitt Romney Is On The Verge Of A Major Electoral Map Comeback |url=https://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romney-electoral-map-college-swing-states-ohio-florida-obama-2012-10 |access-date=26 February 2019 |work=Business Insider |date=11 October 2012}}</ref> [[Florida]] in [[2016 United States presidential election|the 2016 election]],<ref>{{cite web |last1=Hickey |first1=Walt |title=Which Tipping-Point States Favor Trump? |url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-tipping-point-states-favor-trump/ |website=FiveThirtyEight |access-date=26 February 2019 |date=2 November 2016}}</ref> and [[Pennsylvania]] in [[2020 United States presidential election|the 2020 election]].<ref>{{cite web |title=The winding path to victory |url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/#ec-margins |website=FiveThirtyEight |access-date=1 November 2020 |date=1 November 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201101172256/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ |archive-date=1 November 2020}}</ref>

Because a majority of the electoral vote is required in order to clinch the presidential election in the Electoral College,{{efn|If no individual wins a majority of the electoral vote, the [[United States House of Representatives|U.S. House of Representatives]] determines the winner in a [[contingent election]].}} the tipping-point state for the first-place finisher and the second-place finisher may differ if more than two candidates received electoral votes, or if a shift in the states would leave the electoral vote tied. Tipping-point states may also differ depending on the disposition of [[faithless elector]]s, on the assumption that certain faithless electors may have chosen to give their vote to the candidate they had pledged to vote for if their vote would have given that candidate a majority of the vote. Because electoral votes are awarded to winners of [[Washington, D.C.]] and certain [[congressional district]]s,{{efn|Nebraska and Maine award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and award the remainder of their electoral votes based on the winner of each congressional district. Since the [[1832 United States presidential election|1832 presidential election]], the vast majority of states have awarded all of their respective electoral votes to the statewide winner, but [[United States Electoral College#Alternative methods of choosing electors|various methods]] have been used historically. In some cases, such as the [[1860 United States presidential election in New York]], parties have formed fusion tickets in which they agreed to split a state's electoral vote if they won the state.}} it is possible for the tipping-point to be something other than a state.

The tipping-point state is not related to the chronological order in which state-by-state election results are reported, either by media outlets or by state officials. Rather, the media uses [[decision desk]]s to project the apparent winners of each state before all the votes are counted, and will announce a state that they project will give a candidate enough electoral votes to become the apparent presidential winner. The tipping-point state can only be determined after all the votes in each state are counted and certified, and thus all the vote margins are accurate. For example, the projection of Joe Biden to have won the state of Pennsylvania in the 2020 election made him the projected winner of the electoral college, but for Biden the tipping point state of the 2020 election was Wisconsin, which was called for him three days prior.

==Example: 2012 presidential election==
[[File:ElectoralCollege2012.svg|thumb|right|400px|2012 Electoral College result.]]

===Obama victory tipping point state===
In the [[2012 United States presidential election|2012 presidential election]], [[Barack Obama]] defeated [[Mitt Romney]] in the electoral vote, taking 332 electoral votes compared to 206 for Romney. As with all presidential elections since the [[1964 United States presidential election|1964 election]], 270 electoral votes were needed to win a majority in the Electoral College. Obama would still have won a majority of the electoral vote even if he did not win Virginia, Ohio, and Florida, the three states in which he had his lowest margin of victory. However, if Obama had lost those three states as well as Colorado (the state in which Obama's margin of victory was smallest after excluding Virginia, Ohio, and Florida), he would not have won a majority of the Electoral College. Thus, Colorado was the tipping point state for an Obama victory in 2012.

{| class="wikitable"
|+ 2012 presidential election tipping-point state
|-
! colspan=3 | State 
! rowspan=2 | Cumulative Obama<br/> electoral vote
|-
! State !! Obama margin !! Electoral votes
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| ''19 states + [[Washington, D.C.|D.C.]]''{{efn|19 states and [[Washington D.C.]] voted for Obama by a margin of at least 6 percent in 2012.}} || >6% || 233 || 233
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| Iowa || 5.81% || 6 || 239
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| New Hampshire || 5.58% || 4 || 243
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| Pennsylvania || 5.38% || 20 || 263
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| Colorado || 5.36% || 9 || '''272'''
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| Virginia || 3.88% || 13 || 285
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| Ohio || 2.98% || 18 || 303
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| Florida || 0.88% || 29 || 332
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| ''24 states''{{efn|name="Romneystates"|24 states voted for Romney in 2012.}} || <0% || 206 || {{n/a}}
|}

===Hypothetical Romney victory tipping point state===

In a hypothetical 2012 presidential election in which every state uniformly shifted to Romney by 5.37 points, Romney would have won a majority of the electoral vote. In this scenario, Romney would have won 275 electoral votes by adding Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado to the states he won historically. By contrast, if each state had only shifted uniformly to Romney by 5.35 points, Romney would have still have won Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, but would not have won Colorado and would not have won a majority of the electoral vote. Thus, Colorado was the tipping point state for a Romney victory in 2012.

{| class="wikitable"
|+ Tipping-point state in a hypothetical Romney victory
|-
! colspan=3 | State 
! rowspan=2 | Cumulative Romney<br/> electoral vote
|-
! State !! Romney margin !! Electoral votes
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| ''24 states''{{efn|name="Romneystates"}} || >5% || 206 || 206
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| Florida || 4.5% || 29 || 235
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| Ohio || 2.4% || 18 || 253
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| Virginia || 1.5% || 13 || 266
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| Colorado || 0.01% || 9 || '''275'''
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| Pennsylvania || -0.01% || 20 || {{n/a}}
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| New Hampshire || -0.2% || 4 || {{n/a}}
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| Iowa || -0.44% || 6 || {{n/a}}
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| ''20 states + [[Washington, D.C.|D.C.]]'' || <-0.5% || 233 || {{n/a}}
|}

==List of tipping-point states by election==
This table shows the tipping point state for the winning candidate in each presidential election since 1832, without any reassignment of [[faithless electors]].

{| class="wikitable sortable"
|-
! Election !! State !! State margin{{efn|The margin by which the winning candidate won the tipping point state.}} !! [[List of United States presidential elections by popular vote margin|National margin]]{{efn|The margin by which the winning candidate won the national popular vote.}} !! Margin difference{{efn|The tipping-point state margin subtracted by the national popular vote margin.}} !! Winning candidate
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[1832 United States presidential election|1832]] || [[Maine]]{{efn|Because third party candidates [[John Floyd (Virginia politician)|John Floyd]] and [[William Wirt (Attorney General)|William Wirt]] each won several electoral votes, Pennsylvania was the tipping point state for a [[Henry Clay]] victory.}} || 10.7% || 16.8% || -6.1% || data-sort-value="D" | [[Andrew Jackson]] (D)
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[1836 United States presidential election|1836]] || [[Pennsylvania]]{{efn|Because [[Hugh Lawson White]], [[Daniel Webster]], and [[Willie Person Mangum]] each won several electoral votes, and because [[William Henry Harrison]] did not appear on the ballot of every state, New York was the tipping point state for a Harrison victory.}} || 2.4% || 14.2% || -11.8% || data-sort-value="D" | [[Martin Van Buren]] (D)
|-{{party shading/Whig}}
| [[1840 United States presidential election|1840]] || [[New Jersey]] || 3.6% || 6.1% || -2.5% || data-sort-value="W" | [[William Henry Harrison]] (W)
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[1844 United States presidential election|1844]] || [[New York (state)|New York]] || 1.1% || 1.5% || -0.4% || data-sort-value="D" | [[James K. Polk]] (D)
|-{{party shading/Whig}}
| [[1848 United States presidential election|1848]] || [[Pennsylvania]] || 3.6% || 4.8% || -1.2%  || data-sort-value="W" | [[Zachary Taylor]] (W)
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[1852 United States presidential election|1852]] || [[New York (state)|New York]] || 5.2% || 7.0% || -1.8% || data-sort-value="D" | [[Franklin Pierce]] (D)
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[1856 United States presidential election|1856]] || [[Tennessee]]{{efn|Because [[Millard Fillmore]] won several electoral votes, and because [[John C. Fremont]] did not appear on the ballot of every state, Pennsylvania was the tipping point state for a Fremont victory.}} || 4.4% || 12.2% || -7.8% || data-sort-value="D" | [[James Buchanan]] (D)
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1860 United States presidential election|1860]] || [[New York (state)|New York]] || 7.4% || 10.1% || -2.7% || data-sort-value="R" | [[Abraham Lincoln]] (R)
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1864 United States presidential election|1864]] || [[Illinois]] || 8.8% || 10.1% || -1.3% || data-sort-value="R" | [[Abraham Lincoln]] (R){{efn|Hoping to rally [[War Democrats]] and other unionists during the [[American Civil War]], the Republican Party campaigned as the [[National Union Party (United States)|National Union Party]] in the 1864 election.<ref>White (2009), pp. 592–593.</ref>}}
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1868 United States presidential election|1868]] || [[North Carolina]]{{efn|Arkansas was the tipping point state for a victory by [[Horatio Seymour]].}} || 6.8% || 5.3% || 1.5% || rowspan="2" data-sort-value="R" | [[Ulysses S. Grant]] (R)
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1872 United States presidential election|1872]] || [[Ohio]]{{efn|Congress voted to reject the electoral votes of Arkansas and Louisiana on the grounds of election irregularities. If the presidential electors of those states had been accepted by Congress, New Hampshire would have been the tipping point state.}} || 7.1% || 11.8% || -4.7% 
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1876 United States presidential election|1876]] || [[South Carolina]] || 0.5% || -3% || 3.5% || data-sort-value="R" | [[Rutherford B. Hayes]] (R)
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1880 United States presidential election|1880]] || [[New York (state)|New York]] || 1.9% || 0.1% || 1.8% || data-sort-value="R" | [[James A. Garfield]] (R)
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[1884 United States presidential election|1884]] || [[New York (state)|New York]] || 0.1% || 0.6% || -0.5% ||  data-sort-value="D" | [[Grover Cleveland]] (D)
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1888 United States presidential election|1888]] || [[New York (state)|New York]] || 1.1% || -0.8% || 1.9% || data-sort-value="R" | [[Benjamin Harrison]] (R)
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[1892 United States presidential election|1892]] || [[Illinois]] || 3.1% || 3% || -0.1% || data-sort-value="D" | [[Grover Cleveland]] (D)
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1896 United States presidential election|1896]] || [[Ohio]] || 4.8% || 4.3% || 0.5% || rowspan="2" data-sort-value="R" | [[William McKinley]] (R)
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1900 United States presidential election|1900]] || [[Illinois]] || 8.4% || 6.1% || 2.3% 
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1904 United States presidential election|1904]] || [[New Jersey]] || 18.6% || 18.8% || -0.2% || data-sort-value="R" | [[Theodore Roosevelt]] (R)
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1908 United States presidential election|1908]] || [[West Virginia]] || 10.3% || 8.5% || 1.8% || data-sort-value="R" | [[William Howard Taft]] (R)
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[1912 United States presidential election|1912]] || [[New York (state)|New York]]{{efn|Ohio was the tipping point state for a victory by [[Theodore Roosevelt]].}} || 12.6% || 14.4% || -1.8% || rowspan="2" data-sort-value="D" | [[Woodrow Wilson]] (D)
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[1916 United States presidential election|1916]] || [[California]] || 0.4% || 3.1% || -2.7% 
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1920 United States presidential election|1920]] || [[Rhode Island]] || 31.2% || 26.2% || 5.0% || data-sort-value="R" | [[Warren G. Harding]] (R)
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1924 United States presidential election|1924]] || [[Nebraska]] || 17.5% || 25.2% || -7.7% || data-sort-value="R" | [[Calvin Coolidge]] (R)
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1928 United States presidential election|1928]] || [[Illinois]] || 14.7% || 17.4% || -2.7% || data-sort-value="R" | [[Herbert Hoover]] (R)
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[1932 United States presidential election|1932]] || [[Iowa]] || 17.7% || 17.8% || -0.1% || rowspan="4" data-sort-value="D" | [[Franklin D. Roosevelt]] (D)
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[1936 United States presidential election|1936]] || [[Ohio]] || 20.1% || 24.3% || -4.2% 
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[1940 United States presidential election|1940]] || [[Pennsylvania]] || 6.9% || 10% || -3.1% 
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[1944 United States presidential election|1944]] || [[New York (state)|New York]] || 5% || 7.5% || -2.5% 
|-{{party shading/Democratic}} 
| [[1948 United States presidential election|1948]] || [[California]]{{efn|Because third party candidate [[Strom Thurmond]] won 39 electoral votes, Illinois was the tipping point state for a victory by [[Thomas Dewey]].}} || 0.4% || 4.5% || -4.1% || data-sort-value="D" | [[Harry S. Truman]] (D)
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1952 United States presidential election|1952]] || [[Michigan]] || 11.5% || 10.9% || 0.6% || rowspan="2" data-sort-value="R" | [[Dwight D. Eisenhower]] (R)
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1956 United States presidential election|1956]] || [[Florida]] || 14.5% || 15.4% || -0.9% 
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[1960 United States presidential election|1960]] || [[Missouri]]{{efn|name="e1960"|In 1960, because of unpledged electors who cast their votes for [[Harry F. Byrd]], New Jersey was the tipping point state for a Nixon victory.}} || 0.5% || 0.2% || 0.3% || data-sort-value="D" | [[John F. Kennedy]] (D)
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[1964 United States presidential election|1964]] || [[Washington (state)|Washington]]<ref name="doom">{{Cite news |url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-electoral-college-doom-the-democrats-again/ |title=Will The Electoral College Doom The Democrats Again? |last=Silver |first=Nate |date=14 November 2016 |work=FiveThirtyEight |access-date=10 March 2019 |language=en-US}}</ref> || 24.6% || 22.3% || 2.3% || data-sort-value="D" | [[Lyndon B. Johnson]] (D)
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1968 United States presidential election|1968]] || [[Ohio]]{{efn|name="e1968"|Because third party candidate [[George Wallace]] won several electoral votes, Illinois was the tipping point state for a victory by [[Hubert Humphrey]].<ref name="doom" />}} || 2.3% || 0.7% || 1.6% || rowspan="2" data-sort-value="R" | [[Richard Nixon]] (R)
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1972 United States presidential election|1972]] || [[Ohio]]{{efn|name="e1972"|Because of a [[faithless elector]], Maine was the tipping point state for a [[George McGovern]] victory.<ref name="doom" />}} || 21.6% || 23.2% || -1.6% 
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[1976 United States presidential election|1976]] || [[Wisconsin]]<ref name="nytimes"/> || 1.7% || 2.1% || -0.4% || data-sort-value="D" | [[Jimmy Carter]] (D)
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1980 United States presidential election|1980]] || [[Illinois]]<ref name="nytimes"/> || 7.9% || 9.7% || -1.8% || rowspan="2" data-sort-value="R" | [[Ronald Reagan]] (R)
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1984 United States presidential election|1984]] || [[Michigan]]<ref name="nytimes"/>  || 19% || 18.2% || 0.8% 
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[1988 United States presidential election|1988]] || [[Michigan]]<ref name="nytimes"/> || 7.9% || 7.7% || 0.2% || data-sort-value="R" | [[George H. W. Bush]] (R)
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[1992 United States presidential election|1992]] || [[Tennessee]]<ref name="nytimes"/> || 4.7% || 5.6% || -0.9% || rowspan="2" data-sort-value="D" | [[Bill Clinton]] (D)
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[1996 United States presidential election|1996]] || [[Pennsylvania]]<ref name="nytimes"/> || 9.2% || 8.5% || 0.7%
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[2000 United States presidential election|2000]] || [[Florida]]<ref name="nytimes"/> || 0.0%{{efn|[[George W. Bush]] won [[2000 United States presidential election in Florida|Florida]] by 0.0092% in the 2000 presidential election.}} || -0.5% || 0.5% || rowspan="2" data-sort-value="R" | [[George W. Bush]] (R)
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[2004 United States presidential election|2004]] || [[Ohio]]<ref name="nytimes"/> || 2.1% || 2.5% || -0.4% 
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[2008 United States presidential election|2008]] || [[Colorado]]<ref name="nytimes"/>{{efn|Broke a possible tie in the Electoral College. As a result, [[Iowa]] was the tipping point state for a [[John McCain]] victory.|name=|group=}}|| 9.0% || 7.3% || 1.7% || rowspan="2" data-sort-value="D" | [[Barack Obama]] (D)
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[2012 United States presidential election|2012]] || [[Colorado]]<ref name="nytimes"/> || 5.4% || 3.9% || 1.5% 
|-{{party shading/Republican}}
| [[2016 United States presidential election|2016]] || [[Pennsylvania]]{{efn|name="e2016"|Without assigning faithless electors to the winners of their respective states, Pennsylvania was the tipping point state for a Trump victory.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Bump |first1=Philip |title=Here are the states that have been the most likely to deliver the presidency |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/01/here-are-states-which-have-been-most-likely-deliver-presidency/ |newspaper=Washington Post |date=November 1, 2020}}</ref> Wisconsin was the tipping point state for a [[Hillary Clinton]] victory, and was also the tipping point state for a Trump victory if faithless electors are assigned to the winners of their respective states.<ref name="strategy">{{cite web |last1=Silver |first1=Nate |title=Donald Trump Had A Superior Electoral College Strategy |url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ |website=FiveThirtyEight |access-date=26 February 2019 |date=6 February 2017}}</ref>}} || 0.7% || -2.1% || 2.8% || data-sort-value="R" | [[Donald Trump]] (R)
|-{{party shading/Democratic}}
| [[2020 United States presidential election|2020]] || [[Wisconsin]]<ref name="CFP">{{Cite news |url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/wisconsin-decisive-again-in-2020/ |title=Wisconsin: Decisive Again In 2020 |last=Coleman |first=J. Miles|date=19 November 2020 |work=Center For Politics |access-date=9 December 2020 |language=en-US}}</ref>{{efn|Broke a possible tie in the Electoral College. As a result, [[Pennsylvania]] was the tipping point state for a [[Donald Trump]] victory.}} || 0.6% || 4.4% || -3.8% || data-sort-value="D" | [[Joe Biden]] (D)
|}

===Tipping-point states by frequency===
The following states have been the tipping-point state for the winning candidate (without accounting for any change in the disposition of faithless electors) beginning with the 1832 election:

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Times !! State(s)
|-
| 8 || [[New York (state)|New York]]
|-
| 6 || [[Ohio]]
|-
| 5 || [[Pennsylvania]]
|-
| 4 || [[Illinois]]
|-
| 3 || [[Michigan]]
|-
| 2 || [[California]], [[Colorado]], [[Florida]], [[New Jersey]], [[Tennessee]], [[Wisconsin]]
|-
| 1 || [[Iowa]], [[Maine]], [[Missouri]], [[Nebraska]], [[North Carolina]], [[Rhode Island]], [[South Carolina]], [[Washington (state)|Washington]], [[West Virginia]]
|}

==Notes==
{{noteslist}}

==References==
{{Reflist}}
===Works cited===
{{refbegin}}
* {{Cite book|ref=White|last=White, Jr.|first=Ronald C.|title=A. Lincoln: A Biography|publisher=Random House|year=2009|isbn=978-1-4000-6499-1|url=https://archive.org/details/isbn_9781400064991}}
{{refend}}

{{United States presidential elections}}
[[Category:Electoral geography of the United States]]
[[Category:United States Electoral College|>]]
[[Category:United States presidential elections terminology]]